As we heard this morning that shots were now ringing out in Yangon, better known as Rangoon, I thought sadly about a comment from BBC journalist Andrew Harding made just 48 hours ago. He had been watching processions of monks and civilians through Myanmar's largest city and had been surprised that the army had not reacted. The people had been allowed to demonstrate in peace.
"These are generals - they are used to ruling by fear," said Harding. "Today they have been denied that."
Under one of the most repressive regimes of the world, people had dared to take to the streets and challenge a military junta that had brutally extinguished every previous sign of dissent. And, according the British ambassador Mark Canning, who had been watching the huge processions - up to 100,000 people a day in the main city Rangoon alone - they have not taken the streets in a spirit of anger but one of "euphoria." We were seeing a truly remarkable chain of events - we were seeing fear having to register a rare defeat.
But could this story have the happy ending it surely deserves?
Sadly, in all probability it will not. And today's shots could be the sign of much worse things to come.
Bild: EPA
Pessimism
Almost all analysts we have spoken to on Fm4 Reality Check and Fm4 News have been pessimistic. No one can forget the mass student demonstrations against the military regime of 20 years ago were brutally stomped down, costing of at least 3,000 civilians their lives.
We spoke to Dan Slater, an analyst from Chicago University, who gave us this chilling warning.
"No-one should underestimate the capacity and willingness of the Burmese military to use overwhelming force against their own people."
After days of silence the regime's reaction has begun. Firstly there came an unspecific threat of "action" against "internal and external destructive elements".
Then, almost inevitably, the threats were carried out. Earlier today at Shwedagon Pagoda, riot police beat their shields with their batons and yelled at protesters before charging the crowd. The first blood was seen spilled on the smashed up faces of a few protestors. Now we have heard of live rounds being fired over the protesters' heads and the news has crossed of the first fatality.
No one can predict where this will end and we are watching the wires very carefully at the news desk, aware that any reports may be out of date by the end of the hour.
Historic self-perception
Slater says that the military's infamous brutality comes from its self-perception as the only force that can hold the diffuse population of Burma together. They see their role justified by the chaos of the period between independence in 1948 and the definitive military coup of 1962 when multiple regional rebellions ripped the country apart.
It's a similar argument to the one used by the defenders of Saddam Hussein, who inherited a fractious coup-ridden country and brutalised it into unity through fear.
The Burmese population, according to the military's theory, is its own worst enemy. "It's paranoid, indeed it's quite pathological," says Slater, "but it is rooted in history."
The military is particularly dangerous, says Slater, because it lacks confidence. It has never been able to develop an effective civilian wing or gain any social support. Anytime there have been elections, the parties sponsored and backed the military have failed miserably.
This has convinced the military that democracy is no good for it and left it with just one method of cementing its authority - fear. It has no experience with compromise or negotiations and this is what is making the analysts so pessimistic.
Possible Splits
If there is hope for the protestors it comes from the uncharacteristically quiet of Burma's military leadership at the beginning of this crisis. We always talk of 'the military' as a single entity, but of course the military junta is made up of several generals renowned for their in-fighting, with many of the generals more motivated by personal enrichment than loyalty to any ideal. Slater says the protestors' main chance of success is a split in the hierarchy.
The Galvanising Threat From Outside
The chances of that happening have perhaps been damaged by comments from outside, thinks Slater.
British Foreign Secretary David Miliband told the world's press that opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi should take her place as elected leader (Nobel peace prize winner Suu Kyi won a unique general election in the 1990 but was prevented from taking power).
The morals of his statement might be spot-on, but analysts fear that nothing galvanises the military, with their heritage of anti-colonial struggle, more than the threat of interference from the West.
Hope from China
More helpful perhaps has been the tightening of economic sanctions from the USA, although Slater points out that neither the US or Europe has much economic sway in isolationist Myanmar (Burma). More important is the role of China, which has constantly spoken up for Burma in recent years, but has remained largely silent about the current protests. Yet there are signs that Chinese politicians are anxious to help stabilise the political situation in Burma; and that could have a major impact. Slater thinks he knows why:
"I think China realizes that it does itself no service whatsoever by allying itself, its image and its fortunes with one of the most reprehensible regimes on the planet."
Meanwhile, all we can do is hope that the bloodbath that the analysts fear, never actually materialises. And we can refuse to look away.
Vienna | 26.9.2007 | 13:56 
